VitalMatch · Data summary

The rising lung-discard rate is partly a change in who donates.

Donation-after-circulatory-death donors have gone from a rarity to a large minority of the lung pool — and they are discarded far more often. This decomposes the trend.

Source: OPTN/UNOS STAR file, Dec 2025 release · deceased-donor table · lung donors (≥1 lung recovered), by recovery year.

1% → 24%

DCD's share of lung donors rose from 1% in 2005 to 24% in 2025. Because DCD lungs carry a ~5× discard rate, part of the headline rise in overall discards is compositional — more marginal donors — not a worsening of any single donor type.

01 · Composition shift

DCD is now a large minority of lung donors

Share of lung donors recovered as DCD (donation after circulatory death) vs DBD (brain death), by year.

DCD share of lung donors (%)

02 · Decomposition

Within each donor type, discards rose more modestly

Splitting the discard rate by donor type shows DCD lungs sit far above DBD in every year. The overall (dashed) line drifts toward the DCD line partly because the DCD share is growing — a composition effect layered on top of any per-type change.

Lung discard rate by donor type (%) DCD All DBD

Why it matters for interpretation: the "discard rate is climbing" headline conflates two forces — a growing DCD share and any change within each type. Objective CT assessment targets exactly the DCD/marginal population that is both growing and discarded most.